Stealth Money Flash Alert – Somebody’s Buying Very Beaten Up Stocks Aggressively this Morning.
The stealth money, like a burglar in the night is busy this morning.
I am noticing an interesting trading pattern in a very beaten up sector of the market and have nibbled at some of the stocks myself this morning. Of course, in this market, there are no guarantees. But this unmistakable trading pattern goes along with the way the smart money works – they sneak around and buy stocks when other investors are selling in a panic frenzy.
Market Update
The stock market continues to trade in a volatile fashion as bond yields continue to rise. Yet, the more time passes without a new low in the major indexes, the more the odds will rise that we’ve seen the worst of the selling. Of course, things can always get worse, especially if Friday’s employment data is deemed bearish by the bond market.
The New York Stock Exchange Advance Decline line (NYAD) is flirting with a new low while the RSI indicator is unlikely to confirm unless things get really bad. This means that the panic bottom scenario I’ve been describing over the last few weeks is still viable.
The U.S. Ten Year Note yield (TNX) is testing the upper portion of its long term trading range. A move above 4.75% would likely be negative for stocks.
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) continues to struggle between $90,000 and $100,000.
But no matter what, this morning’s dip buying in distressed assets is worth noting. As a result, I am adding a new pick in this distressed sector to my Weekender Portfolio in addition to the one I added this weekend.
If you’re not familiar with the Weekender, it’s a reincarnation of my previous web site which now lives here at Substack. It’s designed for investors with a long term time frame and features two portfolios and requires a separate subscription (see link below)
The Trend Trade portfolio features trades which pay off in weeks to months, while the Rainy Day Portfolio features long time frame trades (months to years). Here are some of results from the Weekender:
• AAON Inc. (AAON). Bought 6/20/24: $80.05. SOLD 11/8/24: $138.24. Return for this trade: $5849/100 shares (42.43%).
• Mid-America Apartment Communities (MAA). Bought 5/6/24: $134.75. SOLD 10/4/24: $153. Return for this trade: $1825/100 shares (13.54%).
• Taylor Morrison Home (TMHC). Bought 2/23/24: $56.35. SOLD 8/6/24: $62. Return for this trade: $565/100 shares (10.02%).
• Global X Uranium ETF (URA). Bought 8/25/22: $22.25. SOLD 7/25/24 closing price: $27. Return for this trade: $475/100 shares plus dividends: $476.73 (21.42%).
• Pulte Group (PHM) Bought 9/28/23: $73.80. SOLD 4/16/24: $108. Return for this trade: $3420 per 100 shares (46.3%).
• Lennar Corp. (LEN). Bought 9/28/23: $112.29. SOLD 3/14/24 closing price: $154. Return for this trade: $4171 per 100 shares (37.1%).
• Tri Pointe Homes (TPH) Bought 9/28/23: $27.40. SOLD 3/14/24: $34. Return for this trade: $660 per 100 shares (24.08%).
• Meritage Homes (MTH) Bought 9/28/23: $123. 1/24/24: $164. Return for this trade: $4100 per 100 shares (33.33%).
• D.R. Horton (DHI). Bought 9/28/23: $107.80. Sold 1/24/24 $141. Return for this trade: $3320 per 100 shares (30.79%).
• Equity Residential (EQR). Bought 5/1/23: $63.50. SOLD 11/1/24 closing price: $69. Return for this trade: $550 + $401.25 in dividends: Total Return: $901.25 (4.19%).
• Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF (PPA). Bought 11/24/23: $86.05. SOLD 10/31/24: Return for this trade: $2800/100 shares (25.58%).
• Shift Four Payments (FOUR). Bought 8/29/24: $82.43. SOLD 11/1/24: $91. Return for this trade: $857/100 shares (10.39%).
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