Momentum Update: The Wall of Worry is so dense; an upside surprise is possible. Get Ready for just about anything.

Take $1058 Profit on TW.

Image courtesy of smallbizclub.com

• SOLD - Tradeweb Markets (TW). Bought 3/3/25: $139. 3/31/25 intraday price: $149.58. Return for this trade: $1058/100 shares (7.61%).

There are no guarantees in this world. Yet as traders we must be prepared for any eventuality. One of them is taking profits when you have them, which is why we’re cashing in our recent Tradeweb Markets (TW) trade with a nice reward for our efforts, especially in a tough market, as I describe above. Another important part of trading is preparation. And right now, there is so much pessimism in the air, that any hint of good news, no matter how implausible, may be good enough to lift stocks, at least in the short term.

The fear gauges are firing on all cylinders, and the dip buyers have been busy this morning, setting up the potential for a big move in response to the tariff announcement this afternoon. It’s a tough call as to what the tariff picture will be like. Thus, the market’s response is anyone’s guess. That said, as I’ve been noting, there is so much bearishness in the air that any hint of something better than the end of the world which is what the bears seem to be expecting could send stocks higher.

That said, there is still plenty of overhead resistance to consider, not the least of which is the 200-day moving average on both the New York Stock Exchange Advance Decline line (NYAD) and the S&P 500 (SPX), which I detail below.

Still this morning’s CNN Greed/Fear Index (GFI) clocked in at 16 at the open while the composite CBOE Put/Call ratio opened at 0.98 as the index Put/Call ratio clocked in at 1.22. These types of readings are often associated with major market bottoms as they suggest that there is plenty of concern amongst investors, especially institutional investors (index P/C ratio). The more bearish they are, the better the odds will be of a huge short squeeze developing when something positive happens.

Will something positive happen? Who knows? Yet it pays to be prepared. More importantly, it’s important to prepare cautiously, without deploying large sums of money without confirmation from the markets that the odds of success are in our favor. So while it’s easy to become impatient and give up, history shows that eventually the toughest markets reverse. It may not happen today. But it will eventually. And we must be prepared. Otherwise, why trade?

Thus, for now we continue to own stocks that have been holding up better than the market while remaining patient and building up our cash reserves and filling our shopping list with potential candidates. This morning, I’m adding a company to the Momentum Portfolio with a great record of beating earnings whose shares have just broken above a key resistance level.

Market Update – Wall of Worry is so dense, an upside surprise is possible.

The New York Stock Exchange Advance Decline line (NYAD) has found support at its 200-day moving average, is now testing its 20-day moving average and is charting the first higher high it has made since this correction started. This is no time to take a victory lap, but it is a positive, especially given the huge wall of worry.

The U.S. Ten Year Note yield (TNX) remains below its 200-day moving average which now becomes critical resistance. A move above this important point could signal that bond traders are no longer concerned about a recession.

The S&P 500 (SPX) remains between 5450 and 5750. Yet, it’s nearing a test of 5650. A successful breach of this resistance level could move SPX toward a test of its 200-day moving average where big decisions by traders will have to be made.

Thanks to everyone for your ongoing support. I really appreciate it.

Thanks also to all the current Buy Me a Coffee members and supporters. Special shout out to new members who now have access to the Sector Selector ETF Service, included, at no extra charge with your Buy Me a Coffee membership.

For active trading, short term trading strategies, check out the Smart Money Passport.

For large potential profits with longer term holding periods in stocks check out the Smart Money Passport Weekender Portfolio.

If you’re thinking about day trading, my new book – Day Trading 101

– will get you started along the right path.

SPECIAL PROMOTION! - In this market you’ve got to stay healthy and alert. Grab some great clean energy and vitality products and get your edge back on our health page. As a special bonus, you will receive a Free one month subscription to the Weekender portfolio with your first health purchase.

You’re the music. I’m just the band.