CPI Keeps Lid on Stocks – We Are Holding 100% Cash
I usually have a new trade on Mondays, but the current action in the stock market has made be a bit cautious. So, I’m going on a day by day basis. There are certainly some stocks that have made it to my potential BUY list, but given the market’s current stance I’m just not willing to take any big chances right now.
We are now 100% in cash as our most recent trade, featuring the VanEck Vectors Oil Refiners ETF (CRAK) was stopped out with a small gain of $51/100 shares. On the other hand, if things change in the next day or two, I am ready to pull the trigger on a new trade.
Here’s a brief big picture update.
This morning’s CPI came in a bit above expectations, and the bond market has backed up slightly. Still, the U.S. Ten Year Note yield (TNX) is sending mixed signals. This morning’s CPI pushed yields back above the 50-day moving average. TNX is still below the 200-day moving average, though, which means for now bond traders are still trying to make up their minds.
This type of indecision is likely to make for a choppy trading day. A sustained move above that 200-day moving average would likely put a damper on the stock market.
Trade Update - BUY VanEck Vectors Oil Refiners ETF (CRAK) Trade Stopped Out 3/11/24
· Bought 2/12/24: $35.79. Stopped Out 3/11/24 - $36.30
· Return for the trade: $51/100 shares (1.42%)
The CRAK trade was closed with a small gain of $51/100 shares
The ETF is still consolidating above its 20, 50, and 200d-day moving averages. ADI and OBV a bit muddled given the recent surge in activity where a small short squeeze distorted the readings. This may be one we come back to. But for now, it’s O.K. to take the small gains and wait.
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