Traders are watching the news but still putting money to work in multiple places. This morning, I’m updating three stock holdings which are on the verge of breaking out while adding a new semiconductor stock which is under stealth accumulation.

Our recent winners Datadog (DDOG) and Palo Alto Networks (PANW) are still chugging along.

So, while the news cycle is doing its best to influence trading behavior, markets continue to grind higher. Stocks remain in an uptrend. Oil seems to be setting up for a new trading range as the Iran situation extends. Bond yields remain range bound. Bitcoin is still battling as it nears its first long term resistance test.

Watching the Response to the News Cycle.

I’ve been watching the market’s response to the news cycle, especially when it applies to the Iran/Strait of Hormuz situation.

Here’s a quick update.

• Oil prices have rallied as the U.S. and Iran reject each other’s most recent proposal. Yet, the reaction, thus far in overnight and early U.S. trading is muted.

• The bond market is responding proportionally to the response in the oil market.

• The S&P 500 (SPX) is moving steadily higher.

• The New York Stock Exchange Advance Decline line is still in consolidation mode.

We continue to track each position individually as we adhere to our general rules.

• Don’t fight liquidity;

• Don’t fight momentum;

• When you get the BUY signal – don’t hesitate; and

• If any position you hold is working, stick with it. If it’s not working, SELL it.

• Take some profits and

• Trade in smaller lots, with perhaps a shorter time frame.

Liquidity Update – Adequate but slowing down.

Last week’s NFCI Index showed liquidity is still adequate but the pace of increase we’ve seen over the last month is slowing down. The latest number is -0.51 from last week’s revised -0.49. New reading on Wednesday.

Portfolio Delivers First Winner for Month of May with $1400 Profit. We’re Still Holding Huge Multi-baggers DDOG and PANW.

Our portfolio remains in solid shape. This morning we closed our DGII position, while our Datadog (DDOG) and Palo Alto Networks (PANW) continue to grind higher. In addition, I’m adding a semiconductor stock to the mix which has recently found its footing.

We delivered nearly $12,000 in profits for the month of April. Our first winner for May, Digi International (DGII) just delivered a nearly $1400 gain.

Time is Ticking! Get your Smart Money Passport at a discount, now! Limited Time (closing soon) 20% discount Offer. Click here to access.

May Winners:

• SOLD - Digi International (DGII). Bought 3/5/26: $50.25. SOLD 5/8/26 intraday price: $64. Return for this trade: $1375/100 shares (21.5%).

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Oil vs. Stocks – Oil Carving Out New Trading Range

The price of oil is settling into a trading range as traders grapple with the notion that the situation in Iran and the Strait of Hormuz could last a lot longer than initially expected.

The United States Oil Fund ETF (USO) is hugging its 20-day moving average. And yes, the Bollinger Bands are starting to squeeze in.

The New York Stock Exchange Advance Decline line (NYAD) is recovering from some early morning weakness. A new record high on NYAD would be a welcome confirmation to the uptrend in the major indices.

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Chart Update

The New York Stock Exchange Advance Decline line (NYAD, see above) is showing some quiet strength.

The S&P 500 (SPX) is above 7400 and is overbought with the RSI trading above 70 for the past several days. That means we should expect at least a consolidation in the short term. 7100 still important short term support. But here’s what’s most interesting. SPX is trading inside its Bollinger bands which means that the trading pattern remains normal.

Bond yields seem to want to rise but remain range bound. The U.S. Ten Year Note yield (TNX), If 4.5% is breached on TNX we can expect some negative fireworks.

Bitcoin continues to hold above $80,000 and is creeping up on $85,000. The 200-day moving average is the next test on the upside. The next important resistance band above the 200-day is $90-$95,000.

My new book “Cryptocurrency 101” will get you ready for the next move in Bitcoin, and Ethereum while offering the inside scoop on stable coins, utility tokens, crypto ETFs, and the stocks of companies that are set to profit from the world of Crypto.

Disclaimer: The Smart Money Passport offers market analysis and opinion not financial advice.

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In confusing markets, it pays to follow time tested trading rules and to be aware of subtle shifts in the market’s behavior. Equally important is the willingness to adapt as needed in order to maximize your odds of trading profitably. Currently it seems this market is starting to change its response to the news cycle.

Trading Rule Review and Update

Last week, in this post, I described and adapted Martin Zweig’s “sacred rules” for the current market. These classic rules are simple to follow, have stood the test of time, and are quite applicable to this market:

• Rule #1 - Don’t fight the Fed (5and liquidity), and

• Rule #2 - Don’t fight the market’s momentum.

Here are two additional rules:

• Rule #3 - Stay alert for important market changes.

• Rule # 4 – Adapt accordingly.

Subtle Changes with Potential Long Term Repercussions Creep into the Market’s Price Action

Of course, given the persistent uncertainty of the events Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, today’s “changes” may be “gone with the wind” tomorrow. Yet, if you’re not plugged in, you may miss important behavioral cues which could affect your perception and your trading results.

Before you spot changes, you should sort out what’s been happening lately. And in this market, it’s been all about AI and the Iran war.

So, when things change, it pays to take notice. Here’s what’s changed:

• Tempered response to Iran news: Last week, the oil market’s response to events in the Strait of Hormuz and Iran was less volatile, suggesting the markets are coming to grips with the long lasting potential of the conflict – further suggesting that, barring a major escalation of the situation, traders are refocusing on other external factors. This is a meaningful change to keep an eye on.

• What does a tempered response to Iran news mean? The change in behavior makes it worth to question what prices will do if a true peace emerges – if it ever does. Wheter a price drop, if it materializes will last is difficult to predict due to the unknown recovery potential of the damaged infrastructure in the Middle East and whether other sources of oil and natural gas (U.S. and Venezuela, among others) will be able to pick up the slack. The major sticking points are products – diesel, LNG, and chemicals (including fertilizers).

• Bond yields fail to break out for now. Bond yields have flirted with secular (structural and long lasting) trend reversals which could upend the status of the financial system’s liquidity. This means that something like a persistent move above 4.5% for the U.S. Ten Year Note (TNX) (see below for graphic details) could change everything. Yet, as with oil, the response in the bond market to war news seems to have changed character. Instead of responding to the news headlines, we’re seeing bond yields are directly responding to the changes in the price of oil. Rising oil prices push yields higher and falling oil prices push yields lower.

• More violent responses to company news. We’ve recently seen a change in the way stocks respond to earnings and company related news. Large cap, well known, recognizable stocks are acting like meme stocks. That’s a sign that there’s a lot of irrational activity going on – such as short sellers who don’t know what they’re doing being very active in the markets.

Until proven otherwise, these changes suggest that the general tenor of the markets may be changing to where price trends will remain responsive to the price of oil instead of the news related to Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. If I’m correct, this is a major shift in the market’s perception of the Iran war and the evolving situation.

Moreover, it shifts the burden of proof to more market specific factors such as interest rates, liquidity, and individual company news such as earnings, mergers, and other company related events.

Equally important is whether this recently emerging behavioral shift will remain in place or whether the market returns to its old mode of reacting to the news cycle rather than to actual events and their potential consequences as represented by the price of oil.

Bitcoin Remains in Focus

The relative stability in Bitcoin’s price behavior suggests that liquidity remains adequate enough to keep money flowing into crypto. This is important because, as I describe in detail in Cryptocurrency 101, Bitcoin is highly sensitive to liquidity, which makes it a useful indicator as well as a very tradable asset class. At the same time, the price action in BTC is confirming the still bullish reading of the NFCI index, which I detail below.

If BTC takes out $80,000 convincingly, we could see it move to $85,000 in a hurry. What happens after that will tell us a lot about liquidity.

Our portfolio is still holding winners including Datadog (DDOG) and Palo Alto Networks (PANW) which continue to grind higher. We also delivered nearly $12,000 in profits for the month of April. Our first winner for May, Digi International (DGII) just delivered a nearly $1400 gain.

Get your Smart Money Passport at a discount, now! Limited Time (closing soon) 20% discount Offer. Click here to access.

May Winners:

• SOLD - Digi International (DGII). Bought 3/5/26: $50.25. SOLD 5/8/26 intraday price: $64. Return for this trade: $1375/100 shares (21.5%).

Our Weekender (long term approach portfolio), delivers reliable growth and income via both stocks and options. The Smart Money Passport (active trading approach) has delivered over $12,000 in real, locked in profits in April.

Disclaimer: The Smart Money Passport and Joe’s Weekend Portfolio offer market analysis and opinion not financial advice.

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Sentiment Summary – Not at crazy levels yet.

• The CNN Greed/Fear Index (GFI) closed at 67 on 5/8/26. This is a Greed Reading

• The Coinmarketcap.com Crypto Greed/Fear was at 50 early Saturday morning – this is a neutral reading.

• The CBOE Composite Put/Call Ratio is at 0.73. The index P/C ratio closed at 1.04. Options sentiment neutral.

• The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) closed at 17.19. This is an encouraging number. A move back above 20 (the negative threshold) is possible in the short term . VIX rises when traders buy large volumes of put options. A rise in put option volume leads market makers to sell stock index futures to hedge their risk and leads markets lower. A fall in VIX is bullish signaling lower put option volume, eventually leads to call buying which is bullish as it causes market makers to buy stock index futures raising the odds of higher stock prices.

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Liquidity Watch – Good News! Liquidity Stays Loose.

The latest reading, of the Fed’s National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) (5/1/26) is a bullish -0.51, falling from a revised -0.49, documenting a persistent loosening of financial conditions/liquidity. A declining NFCI is bullish. Negative NFCI readings signify adequate liquidity.

Bond Yields Reverse After Testing Long Term Resistance.

Yields on U.S. Treasury bonds remain range bound.

The U.S. Ten Year Note yield (TNX) remains range bound near 4.3%. More important, this week we saw TNX reverse as it tested the upper Bollinger Band for the 200-day moving average, a very long term resistance level. A sustained break above the upper Bollinger Band would likely be very unsettling to the financial system, especially if it proves to be the start of a long term climb in yields.

NYAD Sets up for Big Move

The New York Stock Exchange Advance Decline line (NYAD) is compressing its action as the Bollinger Bands are tightly squeezing around the line. That means that a big move is setting up. Nothing is certain about the direction, but it does have an upward vibe. We’ll see.

The Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) is on steroids closing above 29,000. It’s trading above its upper Bollinger Band, so it’s a bit ahead of itself and due for a pullback. 26,000 remains short term support.

The S&P 500 (SPX, above) is also delivering new highs regularly. Compared to NDX, though, it’s still trading inside its Bollinger Bands, which means it still has some room to run. 7100-7200 is the new short term support level.

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If you’re noticing something is changing in the markets, you’re onto something.

We are setting up for some sort of big move in stocks, oil, bonds and likely Bitcoin..

The markets seem to be shifting gears as the response to events in the Strait of Hormuz are increasingly muted prior to prior cycles. Bollinger Band squeeze in the New York Stock Exchange Advance Decline line suggests a big move is coming while the S&P 500 (SPX) is overbought but not overextended.

Observations on the status of the present market – Be ready for Anything.

Things could revert to what we got used to seeing; rapid responses to headlines and crazy volatility. But there seems to be a subtle shift in the way the markets respond to news from Iran. Together with the emerging Bollinger Band setups we’re seeing, you’ve got to be ready for anything.

Here are some noticeable things to ponder about the news cycle and what it may mean for the markets when things calm down in Iran:

• The market’s response to events in the Strait of Hormuz is muted compared to past cycles. This suggests the markets may be settling on the notion that this situation will likely prevail, one way or another, for some time.

• Oil prices are likely to fall – perhaps precipitously when there is a real peace agreement. This may be a knee jerk response as there’s a lot we don’t know about how supply and the logistics have actually been affected by the war.

• Bond traders remain connected with the war. But it’s no longer related to the news cycle. What we’re seeing is a response to the actual change in price. When oil rises bond yields also rise. When oil prices fall, bond yields fall – simultaneously. That suggests that it’s a program (algo, if this happens do this) trade. If the trade goes wrong for enough CTAs, margin calls will follow. The excrement may hit the fan. Moreover, stock traders are talking about the bond market. That’s never a good thing; and

• Large cap, well known, recognizable stocks are acting like meme stocks. That’s a sign that there’s a lot of irrational activity going on – such as short sellers who don’t know what they’re doing being very active in the markets.

Stick with these rules to stay on the right side of the trade:

• Don’t fight liquidity;

• Don’t fight momentum;

• When you get the BUY signal – don’t hesitate; and

• If any position you hold is working, stick with it. If it’s not working, SELL it.

And here are two others which may come in handy:

• Take some profits in positions which have come a long way and

• Trade in smaller lots, with perhaps a shorter time frame.

Liquidity Update – Adequate but slowing down.

This week’s NFCI Index showed liquidity is still adequate but the pace of increase we’ve seen over the last month is slowing down. The latest number is -0.51 from last week’s revised -0.49.

Portfolio Delivers First Winner for Month of May with $1400 Profit. We’re Still Holding Huge Multi-baggers DDOG and PANW.

Our portfolio remains in solid shape. This morning we closed our DGII position, while our Datadog (DDOG) and Palo Alto Networks (PANW) continue to grind higher. Meanwhile, other portfolio holdings look set to make their moves. In addition, I’m adding a semiconductor stock to the mix which has recently found its footing.

We delivered nearly $12,000 in profits for the month of April. Our first winner for May, Digi International (DGII) just delivered a nearly $1400 gain.

Get your Smart Money Passport at a discount, now! Limited Time (closing soon) 20% discount Offer. Click here to access.

May Winners:

• SOLD - Digi International (DGII). Bought 3/5/26: $50.25. SOLD 5/8/26 intraday price: $64. Return for this trade: $1375/100 shares (21.5%).

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Oil vs. Stocks – Oil Breaks Critical Support. Market Breadth Signals Caution

The price of oil looks top heavy but there are no guarantees that a meaningful top is indeed forming. Things could change in a hurry.

The United States Oil Fund ETF (USO) is hugging its 20-day moving average. And yes, the Bollinger Bands are starting to squeeze in.

The New York Stock Exchange Advance Decline line (NYAD) remains remarkably resilient above its 20-day moving average. Moreover, a Bollinger Band squeeze is developing; forecasting a big move lies ahead.

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Chart Update

The New York Stock Exchange Advance Decline line (NYAD, see above) is showing some quiet strength.

The S&P 500 (SPX) is above 7300 and is overbought with the RSI trading above 70 for the past several days. That means we should expect at least a consolidation in the short term. 7100 still important short term support. But here’s what’s most interesting. SPX is trading inside its Bollinger bands which means that the trading pattern remains normal.

Bond yields are steady despite a stronger than expected employment report. The U.S. Ten Year Note yield (TNX), was pushed lower earlier this week after a slight breach of the upper Bollinger Band corresponding to the 200-day moving average yesterday. This has become an important resistance point for TNX. If 4.5% is breached on TNX we can expect some negative fireworks.

Bitcoin continues to hold above $80,000, consolidating above the $75-78,000 support area. The 200-day moving average is the next test on the upside. The next important resistance band above the 200-day is $90-$95,000.

My new book “Cryptocurrency 101” will get you ready for the next move in Bitcoin, and Ethereum while offering the inside scoop on stable coins, utility tokens, crypto ETFs, and the stocks of companies that are set to profit from the world of Crypto.

Disclaimer: The Smart Money Passport offers market analysis and opinion not financial advice.

Read more

This morning, three of our holdings, Datadog (DDOG), Palo Alto Networks (PANW) and Digi International are trading in spectacular fashion. That’s great if you own them. But it’s also a sign that this market is starting to get a bit frothy.

When name stocks trade like meme stocks, something extraordinary is happening. Sure, it’s a momentum run, the type of market which makes you giddy on the way up and makes you wonder why you trade on the way down.

This is where we are. And although the fuel for rally is slowing down as liquidity’s rate of rise decreases, there is still got some pop left before the liquidity spigot gets turned off. The question, of course, is when do you get off the train before it runs into a wall.

The first step in getting off any train is waiting for it to slow down. And we’re starting to see some of that developing.

Certainly, the rules I posted yesterday are worth repeating:

• Don’t fight liquidity;

• Don’t fight momentum;

• When you get the BUY signal – don’t hesitate; and

• If any position you hold is working, stick with it. If it’s not working, SELL it.

Yet, it’s probably a good idea to add two more.

• Take some profits and

• Trade in smaller lots, with perhaps a shorter time frame.

Liquidity Update – Adequate but slowing down.

This week’s NFCI Index shows liquidity is still adequate but the pace of increase we’ve seen over the last month is slowing down. The latest number is -0.51 from last week’s revised -0.49.

Portfolio Delivers the Goods

Our portfolio remains in solid shape. This morning, three of our software/networking stocks, Datadog (DDOG), Palo Alto Networks (PANW) and Digi International (DGII) are up quite nicely as the selling in the software sector was well overdone and earnings beats have proven that AI isn’t going to dent software as much as the market expected.

We delivered nearly $12,000 in profits for the month of April.

Time is Ticking!! This Service Pays for Itself. Seven Trades in April Paid for Your Smart Money Subscription for Nearly 30 Years with an annualized gain of $140,000 – Plus!

Get your Smart Money Passport at a discount, now! Limited Time 20% discount Offer. Click here to access.

• SOLD Nvidia Inc. (NVDA). Bought 4/15/26: $198. SOLD 4/30/26: $206. Return for this trade: $800/100 shares (4.04%).

• SOLD - GNRC Holdings (GNRC). Bought 4/14/26: $209.50. 4/29/26 intraday price: $244. Return for this trade: $3450/100 shares (16.46%).

• SOLD - Cirrus Holdings (CRUS). Bought 4/1/26: $142.50. SOLD 4/28/26 intraday price: $166. Return for this trade: $2350/100 shares (14.15%).

• SOLD Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL). Bought 3/31/26: $136.52. SOLD 4/29/26: $142. Return for this trade: $548/100 shares (3.85%).

• SOLD- Lattice Semiconductor Corp. (LSCC). Bought 4/6/26: $95.50. SOLD 4/28/26 intraday price: $112.69. Return for this trade: $1719/100 shares (18%).

• SOLD - ViaSat Inc. (VSAT). Bought 3/26/26: $48.75. SOLD 04/28/26: $59. Return for this trade: $1025/100 shares (17.4%).

• SOLD - Arm Holdings Plc (ARM). Bought 4/1/26: $153. 4/17/26 intraday price: $165. Return for this trade: $1200/100 shares (7.84%).

• SOLD - Astra Zeneca (AZN). Bought 03/31/26: $194.25. SOLD 04/13/26: $201. Return for this trade: $675/100 shares (3.47%).

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Oil vs. Stocks – Oil Breaks Critical Support. Market Breadth Signals Caution

The price of oil is again down aggressively this morning after news of a potential Iran deal continue to develop. As we suggested a few days ago, oil was vulnerable as it had delivered multiple breaches of its upper Bollinger Band.

The United States Oil Fund ETF (USO) is below $130 and its 20-day moving average. A test of the 50-day moving average looms.

The New York Stock Exchange Advance Decline line (NYAD) made a marginal new high yesterday but is slightly negative this morning.

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Chart Update

The New York Stock Exchange Advance Decline line (NYAD, see above) is turning a bit cautious this morning.

The S&P 500 (SPX) is above 7300 this morning but is becoming very overbought with the RSI trading above 70 for the past several days. That means we should expect at least a consolidation in the short term. 7100 still important short term support.

Bond yields are lower this morning, but remain above important support. The U.S. Ten Year Note yield (TNX), was pushed lower after a slight breach of the upper Bollinger Band corresponding to the 200-day moving average yesterday. That upper band is now established itself as the yield area where bonds will have to make a big decision. Now let’s see what happens at the 50-day moving average. If 4.5% is breached on TNX we can expect some negative fireworks.

Bitcoin is pulling back after its recent run but is holding above $80,000. We may see some consolidation here with $75-78,000 likely providing support. The 200-day moving average is the next test on the upside The next important resistance band above the 200-day is $90-$95,000.

My new book “Cryptocurrency 101” will get you ready for the next move in Bitcoin, and Ethereum while offering the inside scoop on stable coins, utility tokens, crypto ETFs, and the stocks of companies that are set to profit from the world of Crypto.

Disclaimer: The Smart Money Passport offers market analysis and opinion not financial advice.

Read more

The news cycle is back as yet another round of conflicting news emerged before the market opened.

These days, if you’re constantly looking over your shoulder while you trade, you’re not alone – and you’re justified.

The news cycle is increasingly volatile. Yet, the more concerning events become, the more the broad stock market trades in a bullish momentum run pattern. Meanwhile bond yields have failed in their latest attempt a potentially bearish major yield breakout to the upside while Bitcoin is showing signs of steady institutional accumulation as it climbs a significant wall of worry.

None of it makes any sense. Except when you look at the liquidity numbers (see below for details) and the markets.

Here are some simple rules to keep you on the right path:

• Don’t fight liquidity;

• Don’t fight momentum;

• When you get the BUY signal – don’t hesitate; and

• If any position you hold is working, stick with it. If it’s not working, SELL it.

Liquidity Update – Adequate but slowing down.

Because liquidity is what’s fueling this rally, it’s important to keep up. And the most accessible and remarkably accurate tool for assessing liquidity in the Fed’s NFCI index.

This morning’s NFCI Index shows liquidity is still adequate but the pace of increase we’ve seen over the last month is slowing down. The latest number is -0.51 from last week’s revised -0.49.

In addition, the Fed’s been conduction Small Asset purchases in the Repo market (for about $1 million per day) for much of last week and the current week. This suggests that the Fed is continuing to test out the plumbing in case it’s required to make a sizeable infusion into the financial system in the near term.

Portfolio Shines Through the Fog

Our portfolio remains in solid shape. This morning, I’m adding a steel stock which is on the verge of a breakout.

We delivered nearly $12,000 in profits for the month of April.

Time is Ticking!! This Service Pays for Itself. Seven Trades in April Paid for Your Smart Money Subscription for Nearly 30 Years with an annualized gain of $140,000 – Plus!

Get your Smart Money Passport at a discount, now! Limited Time 20% discount Offer. Click here to access.

• SOLD Nvidia Inc. (NVDA). Bought 4/15/26: $198. SOLD 4/30/26: $206. Return for this trade: $800/100 shares (4.04%).

• SOLD - GNRC Holdings (GNRC). Bought 4/14/26: $209.50. 4/29/26 intraday price: $244. Return for this trade: $3450/100 shares (16.46%).

• SOLD - Cirrus Holdings (CRUS). Bought 4/1/26: $142.50. SOLD 4/28/26 intraday price: $166. Return for this trade: $2350/100 shares (14.15%).

• SOLD Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL). Bought 3/31/26: $136.52. SOLD 4/29/26: $142. Return for this trade: $548/100 shares (3.85%).

• SOLD- Lattice Semiconductor Corp. (LSCC). Bought 4/6/26: $95.50. SOLD 4/28/26 intraday price: $112.69. Return for this trade: $1719/100 shares (18%).

• SOLD - ViaSat Inc. (VSAT). Bought 3/26/26: $48.75. SOLD 04/28/26: $59. Return for this trade: $1025/100 shares (17.4%).

• SOLD - Arm Holdings Plc (ARM). Bought 4/1/26: $153. 4/17/26 intraday price: $165. Return for this trade: $1200/100 shares (7.84%).

• SOLD - Astra Zeneca (AZN). Bought 03/31/26: $194.25. SOLD 04/13/26: $201. Return for this trade: $675/100 shares (3.47%).

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Oil vs. Stocks – Oil Nears Critical Support. Market Breadth Tries for New Highs.

The price of oil is down aggressively this morning after news of a potential Iran deal emerged before the market opened.

The United States Oil Fund ETF (USO) broke below $140 but still has support at the 20-day moving average. If that support level fails to hold

The New York Stock Exchange Advance Decline line (NYAD) is trending higher this morning closing in on a new high. A Bollinger Band squeeze is developing, forecasting a big move. Without a new high on NYAD, this momentum rally is likely to lose some of its upward thrust.

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Chart Update

The New York Stock Exchange Advance Decline line (NYAD, see above) is moving higher this morning. A new high is mandatory to reinforce the uptrend.

The S&P 500 (SPX) is above 7300 in the early going. 7100 still important short term support.

Bond yields are lower this morning. The U.S. Ten Year Note yield (TNX), was pushed lower after a slight breach of the upper Bollinger Band corresponding to the 200-day moving average. That upper band is now established itself as the yield area where bonds will have to make a big decision. If 4.5% is breached on TNX we can expect some negative fireworks.

Bitcoin is holding above $80,000, which means that $85,000 is now in play. The 200-day moving average is the next test. The the next important resistance band above the 200-day is $90-$95,000.

My new book “Cryptocurrency 101” will get you ready for the next move in Bitcoin, while offering the inside scoop on stable coins, utility tokens, crypto ETFs, and the stocks of companies that are set to profit from the world of Crypto.

Disclaimer: The Smart Money Passport offers market analysis and opinion not financial advice.

Read more

This is a tricky market, with the news out of the Strait of Hormuz fogging up the market’s lenses and creating a murky trading climate where money is becoming both selective and showing conviction in the limited sectors to which it’s flowing.

Yet, surprisingly, and against all odds, the trend remains up for stocks while a potentially significant move in Bitcoin is developing.

Indeed, the disbelief level in Bitcoin’s ability to cross above $80,000 is rising, which will make the next couple of days in crypto quite interesting. BTC was turned back at $80,750 on 5/4/26 but is trading above $80,000 this morning, with few believers apparent. Thus, from a contrarian standpoint, this rally could well extend beyond expectations.

Portfolio Shines Through the Fog

Our portfolio is in solid shape. This morning, I’m updating a Bitcoin miner/data center stock to BUY as several other portfolio holdings are progressing through their BUY zone. We delivered nearly $12,000 in profits for the month of April.

Time is Ticking!! This Service Pays for Itself. Seven Trades in April Paid for Your Smart Money Subscription for Nearly 30 Years with an annualized gain of $140,000 – Plus!

Get your Smart Money Passport at a discount, now! Limited Time 20% discount Offer. Click here to access.

• SOLD Nvidia Inc. (NVDA). Bought 4/15/26: $198. SOLD 4/30/26: $206. Return for this trade: $800/100 shares (4.04%).

• SOLD - GNRC Holdings (GNRC). Bought 4/14/26: $209.50. 4/29/26 intraday price: $244. Return for this trade: $3450/100 shares (16.46%).

• SOLD - Cirrus Holdings (CRUS). Bought 4/1/26: $142.50. SOLD 4/28/26 intraday price: $166. Return for this trade: $2350/100 shares (14.15%).

• SOLD Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL). Bought 3/31/26: $136.52. SOLD 4/29/26: $142. Return for this trade: $548/100 shares (3.85%).

• SOLD- Lattice Semiconductor Corp. (LSCC). Bought 4/6/26: $95.50. SOLD 4/28/26 intraday price: $112.69. Return for this trade: $1719/100 shares (18%).

• SOLD - ViaSat Inc. (VSAT). Bought 3/26/26: $48.75. SOLD 04/28/26: $59. Return for this trade: $1025/100 shares (17.4%).

• SOLD - Arm Holdings Plc (ARM). Bought 4/1/26: $153. 4/17/26 intraday price: $165. Return for this trade: $1200/100 shares (7.84%).

• SOLD - Astra Zeneca (AZN). Bought 03/31/26: $194.25. SOLD 04/13/26: $201. Return for this trade: $675/100 shares (3.47%).

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Oil vs. Stocks – Oil is Consolidating. Market Breadth Remains Resilient.

The price of oil is going nowhere this morning as conflicting reports out of the Strait of Hormuz keep traders with their hands in their pockets.

The United States Oil Fund ETF (USO) is still testing the support of $140.

The New York Stock Exchange Advance Decline line (NYAD) is still within reach of a new high, which would likely confirm an extension of the current uptrend. A Bollinger Band squeeze is developing, forecasting a big move.

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Chart Update - Bonds test important yield levels. Bitcoin breaks above $80,000.

The New York Stock Exchange Advance Decline line (NYAD, see above) held at the 20-day moving average and is again closing in on a new high. A new high is mandatory to reinforce the uptrend.

The S&P 500 (SPX) continues to move higher. 7100 still important short term support.

Bond yields are flirting with a major trend change. The U.S. Ten Year Note yield (TNX), is brushing up against the upper Bollinger Band corresponding to the 200-day moving average as. A small Bollinger Band squeeze is developing, which means a big move in bonds could be setting up. If 4.5% is breached on TNX we can expect some fireworks.

Bitcoin is trading above $80,000, which means that $85,000 is now in play. Above that is the 200-day moving average and the next important resistance band, $90-$95,000.

My new book “Cryptocurrency 101” will get you ready for the next move in Bitcoin, and Ethereum while offering the inside scoop on stable coins, utility tokens, crypto ETFs, and the stocks of companies that are set to profit from the world of Crypto.

Disclaimer: The Smart Money Passport offers market analysis and opinion not financial advice.

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Stocks are marking time as the market’s focus is shifting toward oil and Bitcoin.

Oil is being affected by dueling headlines out of the U.S. and Iran.

The major indexes are holding up while the market’s breadth consolidates.

The Bitcoin situation is grabbing the headlines for one simple reason. If BTC can rally significantly after a move above $80,000 it would signal that there is still plenty of liquidity available in the financial system to move risk assets higher.

There is no certainty that BTC will deliver the goods. But, it’s not showing any signs of wanting to quit. So, if it does take out $80,000, it may well be the catalyst for another up leg in stocks.

Portfolio Shines

Our portfolio is in solid shape. We’ve delivered nearly $12,000 in profits for the month of April.

This morning, I’m adding a software stock which has just breached its BUY zone while we wait for our already profitable Bitcoin ETF position to react to a potential breach of BTC $80,000.

Today’s Trend – Bitcoin is the Focal Point

• NYAD is still trailing the major indexes (see below). A new high in NYAD would confirm record highs in the indices.

• The situation in Iran is starting to heat up, which means uncertainty is on the rise.

• Bitcoin is again ramping up to challenge $80,000.

• Liquidity is still loose. The latest reading of the Fed’s NFCI Index fell to -0.50 from last week’s revised -0.47.

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• SOLD Nvidia Inc. (NVDA). Bought 4/15/26: $198. SOLD 4/30/26: $206. Return for this trade: $800/100 shares (4.04%).

• SOLD - GNRC Holdings (GNRC). Bought 4/14/26: $209.50. 4/29/26 intraday price: $244. Return for this trade: $3450/100 shares (16.46%).

• SOLD - Cirrus Holdings (CRUS). Bought 4/1/26: $142.50. SOLD 4/28/26 intraday price: $166. Return for this trade: $2350/100 shares (14.15%).

• SOLD Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL). Bought 3/31/26: $136.52. SOLD 4/29/26: $142. Return for this trade: $548/100 shares (3.85%).

• SOLD- Lattice Semiconductor Corp. (LSCC). Bought 4/6/26: $95.50. SOLD 4/28/26 intraday price: $112.69. Return for this trade: $1719/100 shares (18%).

• SOLD - ViaSat Inc. (VSAT). Bought 3/26/26: $48.75. SOLD 04/28/26: $59. Return for this trade: $1025/100 shares (17.4%).

• SOLD - Arm Holdings Plc (ARM). Bought 4/1/26: $153. 4/17/26 intraday price: $165. Return for this trade: $1200/100 shares (7.84%).

• SOLD - Astra Zeneca (AZN). Bought 03/31/26: $194.25. SOLD 04/13/26: $201. Return for this trade: $675/100 shares (3.47%).

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Oil vs. Stocks – Oil is Frozen. Market Breadth Holds Steady.

The price of oil is going nowhere this morning as conflicting reports out of the Strait of Hormuz keep traders with their hands in their pockets.

The United States Oil Fund ETF (USO) is still testing the support of $140.

The New York Stock Exchange Advance Decline line (NYAD) is still within reach of a new high but continues to wait for something to happen before making a move. If there is a new high by the market’s close, stocks will head into the weekend with a bullish tailwind.

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Chart Update

The New York Stock Exchange Advance Decline line (NYAD, see above) held at the 20-day moving average and closing in on a new high. A new high is mandatory to reinforce the uptrend.

The S&P 500 (SPX) is inching higher with 7100 still important short term support.

Bond yields are creeping higher. The U.S. Ten Year Note yield (TNX), is brushing up against the upper Bollinger Band corresponding to the 200-day moving average as the MOVE index (measuring volatility for bonds) is rolling over. A small Bollinger Band squeeze is developing, which means a big move in bonds is likely ahead. If 4.5% is breached on TNX we can expect some fireworks.

Bitcoin is attempting to breach $80,000. If successful, it’s likely we’ll see a massive short squeeze and likely taking BTC to $85,000 in a hurry. $70,000- $75,000 remains key support. With few believers left, this could get interesting in a hurry.

My new book “Cryptocurrency 101” will get you ready for the next move in Bitcoin, and Ethereum while offering the inside scoop on stable coins, utility tokens, crypto ETFs, and the stocks of companies that are set to profit from the world of Crypto.

Disclaimer: The Smart Money Passport offers market analysis and opinion not financial advice.

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Stocks are due for a pause as the market’s breadth has begun to lag the major indexes. Yet, periods like the current one always lead me to that old Wall Street question: “Do you want to be right? Or do you want to make money?

When it comes to trading the markets, being right is overrated. Making money, on the other hand, is the reason we trade.

Thus, as the market nears a possible pullback/consolidation/correction, it’s a good time to review some of the basic tenets of successful trading.

Updating Zweig’s Golden Rules

The stock market bottomed on March 27, 2026 with the S&P 500 (SPX) opening at 6453. Since then, SPX has risen some 800 points (just above 12%). With that type of gain, you’d expect more people to be convinced of the rally. Yet, given the daily trading action and the daily comments, the general consensus is that this is more of a “grind” than a rally. Moreover, many still don’t believe in the reality of the moment.

In fact, the higher stocks rise, the more it seems that people are ignoring or fighting the rally. It’s a personal choice, which I respect. But it is a violation of Martin Zweig’s two sacred rules of trading:

• Rule #1 - Don’t fight the Fed, and

• Rule #2 - Don’t fight the market’s momentum.

The late “Marty” Zweig, was a hedge fund manager in the 1980s who gained fame when he went to 100% cash a few days before the 1987 stock market crash. Before that, Zweig had been a winner for many years. After his famous call, he was a regular guest on financial television, and he penned the first book I ever read on the stock market; the bestselling “Winning on Wall Street.” RIP – “Marty.”

Zweig’s rules are still useful, but require a bit of fine tuning for the present since the Fed is keeping interest rates stable while they’ve changed their playbook, such as by quietly tweaking the Repo system (the overnight lending system run by the Fed for banks) and adding $25-$40 billion per month of liquidity to the system via the so called Reserve Management Program (RMP).

Yet, these rules remain the most useful of any I’ve come across in my nearly forty years of trading and investing. So, I’ve left Rule #2 as Zweig originally stated it (don’t fight momentum), while amending Rule #1 to – Don’t fight the Fed (interest rates), or the market’s liquidity; whichever is the prevalent influence on the market.

Thus, even when interest rates are stable, or in some cases rising, it’s equally important to know how much money is available to the financial system (liquidity), and how much of that money makes its way into the markets. If you don’t believe me, check out my post from last week, where I offered clear visual evidence of the clear and tradeable effect of liquidity on stocks.

Recently, liquidity got a big, albeit quiet, double barrel boost when the Fed and the U.S. Treasury infused $200 billion into the banking system from late March until April 15; possibly seasonally influenced by tax season. Yet, why it happened doesn’t really matter as much as what it did; as it fueled the rally from the recent bottom.

The take home message is that when money comes into the banking system - don’t fight liquidity. And when stocks go up - don’t fight the market’s momentum.

Moreover, the latest data (the NFCI index, see below for details) suggests liquidity is still good enough to keep prices going higher.

What happens when the liquidity runs out? You can expect the markets to consolidate or drop; perhaps precipitously. In fact, if the markets begin to wobble, it’s wise to consider a liquidity issue as the primary cause.

More important is whether we’ll get another shot of liquidity when the new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh takes over.

Bitcoin Knocks on Door of Important Breakout

Just a quick further note on liquidity. Bitcoin’s current action suggests that liquidity is, at least, good enough to keep things rolling. As I noted last week, and as I describe in detail in Cryptocurrency 101, Bitcoin is very sensitive to liquidity, which makes it a useful indicator as well as a very tradable asset class.

If BTC takes out $80,000 convincingly, we could see it move to $85,000 in a hurry. What happens after that will tell us a lot about liquidity.

Our Weekender (long term approach portfolio), delivers reliable growth and income via both stocks and options. The Smart Money Passport (active trading approach) has delivered over $12,000 in real, locked in profits in April.

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• SOLD Nvidia Inc. (NVDA). Bought 4/15/26: $198. SOLD 4/30/26: $206. Return for this trade: $800/100 shares (4.04%).

• SOLD - GNRC Holdings (GNRC). Bought 4/14/26: $209.50. 4/29/26 intraday price: $244. Return for this trade: $3450/100 shares (16.46%).

• SOLD - Cirrus Holdings (CRUS). Bought 4/1/26: $142.50. SOLD 4/28/26 intraday price: $166. Return for this trade: $2350/100 shares (14.15%).

• SOLD Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL). Bought 3/31/26: $136.52. SOLD 4/29/26: $142. Return for this trade: $548/100 shares (3.85%).

• SOLD- Lattice Semiconductor Corp. (LSCC). Bought 4/6/26: $95.50. SOLD 4/28/26 intraday price: $112.69. Return for this trade: $1719/100 shares (18%).

• SOLD - ViaSat Inc. (VSAT). Bought 3/26/26: $48.75. SOLD 04/28/26: $59. Return for this trade: $1025/100 shares (17.4%).

• SOLD - Arm Holdings Plc (ARM). Bought 4/1/26: $153. 4/17/26 intraday price: $165. Return for this trade: $1200/100 shares (7.84%).

• SOLD - Astra Zeneca (AZN). Bought 03/31/26: $194.25. SOLD 04/13/26: $201. Return for this trade: $675/100 shares (3.47%).

Disclaimer: The Smart Money Passport and Joe’s Weekend Portfolio offer market analysis and opinion not financial advice.

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Sentiment Summary – Suddenly Everyone is Bullish

• The CNN Greed/Fear Index (GFI) closed at 67 on 5/1/26. This is a Greed Reading

• The Coinmarketcap.com Crypto Greed/Fear was at 42 early Saturday morning – this is a neutral reading.

• The CBOE Composite Put/Call Ratio is at 0.75. The index P/C ratio closed at 1.02. Options sentiment neutral.

• The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) closed at 16.99. This is an encouraging number. A move back above 20 (the negative threshold) is possible in the short term . VIX rises when traders buy large volumes of put options. A rise in put option volume leads market makers to sell stock index futures to hedge their risk and leads markets lower. A fall in VIX is bullish signaling lower put option volume, eventually leads to call buying which is bullish as it causes market makers to buy stock index futures raising the odds of higher stock prices.

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Liquidity Watch – Good News! Liquidity Stays Loose.

The latest reading, March 27, 2026 of the Fed’s National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) (4/24/26) is a bullish -0.52, falling from -0.50 documenting loosening of financial conditions/liquidity. A declining NFCI is bullish. Negative NFCI readings signify adequate liquidity.

Bond Yields Remain Range Bound

Yields on U.S. Treasury bonds remain range bound.

The U.S. Ten Year Note yield (TNX) again closed the week below 4.3% and its 20-day moving average. A break below the 200-day moving average would be bullish. A move above 4.5% would likely take TNX back toward the May 2025 high near 4.6%.

NYAD Lags Major Indexes in Minor Breadth Divergence

The New York Stock Exchange Advance Decline line (NYAD) is lagging the indexes but is not falling apart. This is a minor negative divergence which is worth watching. For a full confirmation of the uptrend we need to see NYAD deliver a series of new highs in the next few days to weeks.

The Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) continues to make new technology fueled highs. 26,000 is now short term support.

The S&P 500 (SPX, above) made new highs and remains above 7000. 7100-7200 is the new short term support level.

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Momentum under this market is building up, although it remains somewhat fragile and driven by the clash between the news cycle and the surprisingly resilient liquidity spawned by the Fed and the U.S. Treasury reserve infusion near tax day.

Stocks are again rallying this morning after a new record on the S&P 500 (SPX). At the same time, the market’s breadth is closing in confirmation. If this bullish pattern expands, this rally could roll on for longer.

Portfolio Shines

Our portfolio continues to shine. We’ve delivered nearly $12,000 in profits for the month of April.

This morning, I’m adding a software stock which is approaching its BUY zone along with an industrial stock which is under stealth accumulation for good reasons. In addition, our Bitcoin ETF position is setting up for a big move if Bitcoin can take out $80,000.

Today’s Trend View Shows Market Breadth Closing in on Bullish Confirmation

• NYAD is closing on a new high (see below), which would confirm record highs in the indices and likely extend the rally.

• The situation in Iran continues to fluctuate.

• Bitcoin is again ramping up to challenge $80,000. A move above $80,000 will lightly spark a huge move higher.

• Liquidity is still loose. The latest reading of the Fed’s NFCI Index fell to -0.50 from last week’s revised -0.47. New reading on NFCI tomorrow.

This Service Pays for Itself. Seven Trades in April Paid for Your Smart Money Subscription for Nearly 30 Years.

Get your Smart Money Passport at a discount, now! Limited Time 20% discount Offer. Click here to access.

• SOLD Nvidia Inc. (NVDA). Bought 4/15/26: $198. SOLD 4/30/26: $206. Return for this trade: $800/100 shares (4.04%).

• SOLD - GNRC Holdings (GNRC). Bought 4/14/26: $209.50. 4/29/26 intraday price: $244. Return for this trade: $3450/100 shares (16.46%).

• SOLD - Cirrus Holdings (CRUS). Bought 4/1/26: $142.50. SOLD 4/28/26 intraday price: $166. Return for this trade: $2350/100 shares (14.15%).

• SOLD Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL). Bought 3/31/26: $136.52. SOLD 4/29/26: $142. Return for this trade: $548/100 shares (3.85%).

• SOLD- Lattice Semiconductor Corp. (LSCC). Bought 4/6/26: $95.50. SOLD 4/28/26 intraday price: $112.69. Return for this trade: $1719/100 shares (18%).

• SOLD - ViaSat Inc. (VSAT). Bought 3/26/26: $48.75. SOLD 04/28/26: $59. Return for this trade: $1025/100 shares (17.4%).

• SOLD - Arm Holdings Plc (ARM). Bought 4/1/26: $153. 4/17/26 intraday price: $165. Return for this trade: $1200/100 shares (7.84%).

• SOLD - Astra Zeneca (AZN). Bought 03/31/26: $194.25. SOLD 04/13/26: $201. Return for this trade: $675/100 shares (3.47%).

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Oil vs. Stocks – Oil Pulls Back. Market Breadth Nears Confirmation of Index Records.

The price of oil is pulling back this morning.

The United States Oil Fund ETF (USO) is testing the support of $140. Yesterday, I noted that USO had moved above its upper Bollinger Band yesterday corresponding to the 200-day moving average, meaning that oil was very overbought and trading well above a normal trading pattern. The action this morning confirms that observation. Let’s see what happens next.

The New York Stock Exchange Advance Decline line (NYAD) is inching closer to a new high. If there is a new high by the market’s close, stocks will head into the weekend with a bullish tailwind.

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Chart Update –

The New York Stock Exchange Advance Decline line (NYAD, see above) held at the 20-day moving average and closing in on a new high. A new high is mandatory to reinforce the uptrend.

The S&P 500 (SPX) is adding to yesterday’s new high with 7100-7200 becoming short term support.

Bond yields slightly lower this morning. The U.S. Ten Year Note yield (TNX), is trading above 4.3%, but below the 4.4% resistance zone. A move below 4.2% would be bullish.

Bitcoin seems determined to make a go at $80,000 after another Bollinger Band squeeze has set up a big move. Let’s see if it can finally take out $80,000. I expect a move above $80,000 will open up the floodgates and take BTC to $85,000 in a hurry. $70,000- $75,000 remains key support. Sentiment is fading on Bitcoin, which adds a bullish layer to its potential.

My new book “Cryptocurrency 101” will get you ready for the next move in Bitcoin, and Ethereum while offering the inside scoop on stable coins, utility tokens, crypto ETFs, and the stocks of companies that are set to profit from the world of Crypto.

Disclaimer: The Smart Money Passport offers market analysis and opinion not financial advice.

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Stocks are rallying this morning, but liquidity concerns abound. Watching Bitcoin like a hawk.

Powell will resign as Fed Chairman but will remain at the Fed as a governor. The Fed doesn’t want to cut rates anytime soon. No one asked about liquidity. That means that we have to watch what Bitcoin does and how the NFCI index evolves over the next week or two.

Portfolio Shines

Yet, our portfolio continues to deliver the goods. We’re adding to our profit stash for the month of April with an $800 gain on NVDA, in addition to our $3400 gain on GNRC and a $650-plus gain on TOL yesterday. See full details below. We’re almost at $12,000 in profits for the month of April.

In addition, we’re adding a tactical oil trade and a very stealthily accumulated way off the radar stock which is breaking out to the portfolio.

The Canaries in the Liquidity Coal Mine

Investors should be paying close attention to the proverbial “canaries in the liquidity coal mine,” the little known, but highly influential NFCI index and Bitcoin.

More on Bitcoin below.

With the Fed on hold, liquidity’s importance in the financial system increases. That means that knowledge of the status of financial conditions is paramount for the markets – and that means knowing where the NFCI index from the Chicago Fed is signaling loose or tight conditions. The latest reading came in at –0.52 compared to last week’s -0.50.

That’s a comforting reading, but it’s not necessarily a signal that everything is great. Certainly, this is the third week in a row, in which the index has signaled a loosening of financial conditions which was, as we’ve noted here numerous times, spurred by the combined Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury $200 billion tax season liquidity infusion into the financial system.

And therein lies the issue. The NFCI’s downward path seems to be slowing down. Moreover, the Fed doesn’t seem terribly keen to fill the system with liquidity beyond what it’s already doing, due to fear of inflation from higher oil prices. The NFCI as I discussed in detail this weekend, is also important because it’s general trend is highly correlated to the action in the stock market.

When the NFCI falls, it signals that financial conditions are loosening, and that, more often than not, pushes stock prices higher. In fact, the recent stock market bottom and subsequent rally coincided with a bullish turn on the NFCI, as did last year’s similar rally in March April, were spurred by bullish NFCI readings.

In other words, if the NFCI downward trend stalls, it would likely signal that the recent liquidity boost to stocks, and for that matter Bitcoin, has likely run its course. That means that next Wednesday’s NFCI release will be ‘UGE!

Today’s Trend View Shows Improvement in the Market’s Breadth

• NYAD is holding up this morning (see below) and is again within reach of a new high.

• The situation in Iran remains volatile.

• Bitcoin is ramping up for another move to $80,000.

• Liquidity is still loose. The latest reading of the Fed’s NFCI Index fell to -0.50 from last week’s revised -0.47. New reading on NFCI tomorrow.

This Service Pays for Itself. Seven Trades in April Paid for Your Smart Money Subscription for Nearly 30 Years.

Get your Smart Money Passport at a discount, now! Limited Time 20% discount Offer. Click here to access.

• SOLD Nvidia Inc. (NVDA). Bought 4/15/26: $198. SOLD 4/30/26: $206. Return for this trade: $800/100 shares (4.04%).

• SOLD - GNRC Holdings (GNRC). Bought 4/14/26: $209.50. 4/29/26 intraday price: $244. Return for this trade: $3450/100 shares (16.46%).

• SOLD - Cirrus Holdings (CRUS). Bought 4/1/26: $142.50. SOLD 4/28/26 intraday price: $166. Return for this trade: $2350/100 shares (14.15%).

• SOLD Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL). Bought 3/31/26: $136.52. SOLD 4/29/26: $142. Return for this trade: $548/100 shares (3.85%).

• SOLD- Lattice Semiconductor Corp. (LSCC). Bought 4/6/26: $95.50. SOLD 4/28/26 intraday price: $112.69. Return for this trade: $1719/100 shares (18%).

• SOLD - ViaSat Inc. (VSAT). Bought 3/26/26: $48.75. SOLD 04/28/26: $59. Return for this trade: $1025/100 shares (17.4%).

• SOLD - Arm Holdings Plc (ARM). Bought 4/1/26: $153. 4/17/26 intraday price: $165. Return for this trade: $1200/100 shares (7.84%).

• SOLD - Astra Zeneca (AZN). Bought 03/31/26: $194.25. SOLD 04/13/26: $201. Return for this trade: $675/100 shares (3.47%).

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Oil vs. Stocks – Oil Pulls Back with Technical Divergences. Stocks Recover

The price of oil is pulling back this morning. Technical divergences are developing.

The United States Oil Fund ETF (USO) is still trading above $140. Note that USO moved above its upper Bollinger Band yesterday. This Bollinger Band setup is based on the 200-day moving average. Therefore, it’s more meaningful than the standard 20-day moving average setup. In other words, oil is overbought and trading well above a normal trading pattern. Whether that means anything or not currently, is still up in the air. Also note the RSI made a lower low with the recent high, which is a negative divergence.

The New York Stock Exchange Advance Decline line (NYAD) is rolling over but holding above support.

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Chart Update –

The New York Stock Exchange Advance Decline line (NYAD, see above) held at the 20-day moving average and is trying to ramp up. Still, we need to see new highs to reinforce the uptrend.

The S&P 500 (SPX) remains above 7000 and remains in a consolidation pattern.

Bond yields are steady this morning. The U.S. Ten Year Note yield (TNX), is trading above 4.3%, testing the 4.4% resistance zone. A move below 4.2% would be bullish.

Bitcoin is again setting up for a big move, consolidating near its 20-day moving average as yet another Bollinger Band squeeze sets up. Let’s see if it can finally take out $80,000. $70,000- $75,000 remains key support. Sentiment is fading on Bitcoin, which adds a bullish layer to its potential.

My new book “Cryptocurrency 101” will get you ready for the next move in Bitcoin, and Ethereum while offering the inside scoop on stable coins, utility tokens, crypto ETFs, and the stocks of companies that are set to profit from the world of Crypto.

Disclaimer: The Smart Money Passport offers market analysis and opinion not financial advice.

Read more

Oil is gapping higher, bond yields are rising, and stocks are rolling over. But Bitcoin is setting up for a big move. And yes, there will be fireworks after the Powell press conference and the Mag 7 earnings after hours.

We’ll get through it one day at a time.

Portfolio Shines

Yet, our portfolio continues to deliver the goods. We’re adding to our profit stash for the month of April with a $3400 gain on GNRC and a $650-plus gain on TOL which we’re selling this morning plus we’re cashing in two other winners. See full details below.

In addition, we’re adding a tactical oil trade and a very stealthily accumulated way off the radar stock which is breaking out to the portfolio.

First Barrel – Fed statement and press conference

At 1:00 PM Central time we’ll get the Fed’s latest interest rate decision (likely nothing will change) and the so-called dot-plot which forecasts what each voting Fed member expects will happen to rates in the future. This will be followed by Fed Chairman Powell’s, possibly last, press conference, during which he will likely tiptoe around every word, which according to the mainstream consensus is designed not to shake the market up, and to leave his successor, Kevin Warsh a clean slate.

That said, no one really knows what Powell will say or do. He’s had his share of friction with the White House and may deliver some interesting remarks on his way out the door.

Second Barrel: Liquidity Grows at a Slower Pace

The latest NFCI index from the Chicago Fed should be stabilizing for stocks as it shows that financial conditions are still loose, albeit at a slower pace since reversing the recent tightening trend in late March. The latest reading clocking in at –0.52 compared to last week’s -0.50.

This is the third week of the recent loosening trend in financial conditions which was spurred by the combined Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury $200 billion tax season liquidity infusion into the financial system.

The NFCI as I discussed in detail this weekend, is the Fed’s own guide to financial conditions, and is a highly accurate gauge of financial system liquidity and an excellent predictor of the stock market’s trend.

Moreover, when the NFCI falls, it signals that financial conditions are improving. Indeed, the recent stock market rally coincided with a bullish turn on the NFCI which resulted from the above mentioned seasonal cash infusion of $200 billion into the financial system by the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury.

Today’s Trend View Shows Improvement in the Market’s Breadth

• NYAD is rolling over (see below) but above support.

• The situation in Iran is completely unpredictable now.

• Bitcoin is setting up for another go at $80,000.

• Liquidity is still loose. The latest reading of the Fed’s NFCI Index fell to -0.52 from last week’s revised -0.50.

  This Service Pays for Itself. Seven Trades in April Paid for Your Smart Money Subscription for Nearly 30 Years. Get your Smart Money Passport at a discount, now! Limited Time 20% discount Offer. Click here to access.

• SOLD - GNRC Holdings (GNRC). Bought 4/14/26: $209.50. 4/29/26 intraday price: $244. Return for this trade: $3450/100 shares (16.46%).

• SOLD - Cirrus Holdings (CRUS). Bought 4/1/26: $142.50. SOLD 4/28/26 intraday price: $166. Return for this trade: $2350/100 shares (14.15%).

• SOLD Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL). Bought 3/31/26: $136.52. SOLD 4/29/26: $142. Return for this trade: $548/100 shares (3.85%).

• SOLD- Lattice Semiconductor Corp. (LSCC). Bought 4/6/26: $95.50. SOLD 4/28/26 intraday price: $112.69. Return for this trade: $1719/100 shares (18%).

• SOLD - ViaSat Inc. (VSAT). Bought 3/26/26: $48.75. SOLD 04/28/26: $59. Return for this trade: $1025/100 shares (17.4%).

• SOLD - Arm Holdings Plc (ARM). Bought 4/1/26: $153. 4/17/26 intraday price: $165. Return for this trade: $1200/100 shares (7.84%).

• SOLD - Astra Zeneca (AZN). Bought 03/31/26: $194.25. SOLD 04/13/26: $201. Return for this trade: $675/100 shares (3.47%).

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Oil vs. Stocks – Oil Volatility Increases. Stocks Roll Over.

The price of oil is gapping higher this morning.

The United States Oil Fund ETF (USO) has moved above $140.

The New York Stock Exchange Advance Decline line (NYAD) is rolling over but holding above support.

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Chart Update

The New York Stock Exchange Advance Decline line (NYAD, see above) is holding above support, but is on the defensive.

The S&P 500 (SPX) remains above 7000 and seems to be entering a consolidation pattern.

Bond yields are rising this morning. The U.S. Ten Year Note yield (TNX), is trading above 4.3%, closing in on 4.4%. A move below 4.2% would be bullish.

Bitcoin is consolidating near its 20-day moving average as yet another Bollinger Band squeeze sets up. Let’s see if it can wind up and take out $80,000. $70,000- $75,000 is key support.

I just appeared on The Stacking Benjamins Podcast, rated the Best Personal Finance podcast by Bankrate.co to discuss the ins and outs of crypto for anyone who’s interested but may be still sitting on the fence. The title of the episode is “Bitcoin, Blockchain, and the Stuff No one Actually Explains” and you can find it here. The conversation starts around the 8:50 mark.

My new book “Cryptocurrency 101” will get you ready for the next move in Bitcoin, and Ethereum while offering the inside scoop on stable coins, utility tokens, crypto ETFs, and the stocks of companies that are set to profit from the world of Crypto.

Disclaimer: The Smart Money Passport offers market analysis and opinion not financial advice.

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This morning, we’re taking a $1700 profit on Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC). See below for details.

Market Holds Up Better than Expected on Bad News

The question is still worth asking. Is there enough liquidity in the system to buck bad news? We may be about to find out.

For the past several weeks, we’ve noted that the Fed and the U.S. Treasury’s recent liquidity infusion have shielded the financial markets from the news cycle. This morning, things are changing rapidly.

The news cycle is back. Reports that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are leaving OPEC and that Open AI is missing its internal growth targets are hitting the markets this morning.

Yet, things are not totally falling apart. If fact, the New York Stock Exchange Advance Decline line is trending slightly higher. And, at least in the early going, there is some dip buying. Let’s see if it lasts.

Meanwhile the Fed is meeting and is expected to do nothing regarding interest rates. Of course, what matters more is whether they will continue to inject stealth money into the financial system via Repo operations and the almost forgotten RMP program. For the record, the Fed tested the Repo system this morning with a $3 million small value operation.

Why Interest Rates are only Half the Story

The Fed meets today and tomorrow in what is looking as Powell’s last meetings as Fed Chairman. Interestingly, the meeting is occurring in the midst of a rapidly changing news cycle.

And while interest rates are important, most investors fail to appreciate that liquidity, the amount of money available in the financial system is equally, or perhaps more important in an era of high indebtedness.

That doesn’t mean that lower interest rates aren’t important. It just means it’s not the whole story. The best scenario for the markets is one in which liquidity is ample, and interest rates are low simultaneously. Not only does that increase the odds of higher stock prices, but it also eases the financing burden for companies and individuals who have high levels of debt.

Currently, high levels of liquidity from the combined Federal Reserve Repo market operations and the drawdown from the Treasury’s General Account which were designed to relieve pressure during tax season, have spurred stocks higher.

That makes tomorrow a huge day as the Fed makes its statement on interest rate policy. Ahead of the announcement, we’ll get the latest NFCI reading (released on Wednesday) a must check for all investors, as it will tell us the status of financial conditions/liquidity in the system. If conditions are shown to be tightening, it’s possible that the rally may be over.

The NFCI as I discussed in detail this weekend, is the Fed’s own guide to financial conditions, and is a highly accurate gauge of financial system liquidity and an excellent predictor of the stock market’s trend.

Moreover, when the NFCI falls, it signals that financial conditions are improving. Indeed, the recent stock market rally coincided with a bullish turn on the NFCI which resulted from the above mentioned seasonal cash infusion of $200 billion into the financial system by the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury.

Today’s Trend View Shows Improvement in the Market’s Breadth

• NYAD is holding up this morning (see below) and is again within reach of a new high.

• The situation in Iran remains volatile. And the UAE news has the potential to unsettle the oil market unexpectedly.

• Bitcoin may be stalling below $80,000.

• Liquidity is still loose. The latest reading of the Fed’s NFCI Index fell to -0.50 from last week’s revised -0.47. New reading on NFCI tomorrow.

Time is Running Out!

Three Trades in April Paid for Your Smart Money Subscription for Eighteen Years

Get your Smart Money Passport at a discount, now! Limited Time 20% discount Offer. Click here to access.

• SOLD- Lattice Semiconductor Corp. (LSCC). Bought 4/6/26: $95.50. SOLD 4/28/26 intraday price: $112.69. Return for this trade: $1719/100 shares (18%).

• SOLD - Arm Holdings Plc (ARM). Bought 4/1/26: $153. 4/17/26 intraday price: $165. Return for this trade: $1200/100 shares (7.84%).

• SOLD - Astra Zeneca (AZN). Bought 03/31/26: $194.25. SOLD 04/13/26: $201. Return for this trade: $675/100 shares (3.47%).

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Oil vs. Stocks – Oil Volatility Increases. Stocks Don’t Break Down.

The price of oil is rising after initially falling on the UAE leaving OPEC news.

The United States Oil Fund ETF (USO) is testing $140.

The New York Stock Exchange Advance Decline line (NYAD) is showing some relative strength, although this morning’s advance is narrow. We still need to see a series of new highs to fully confirm the uptrend.

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Chart Update

The New York Stock Exchange Advance Decline line (NYAD, see above) is holding up better than the indexes this morning

The S&P 500 (SPX) remains above 7000, but is off its worst levels.

Bond yields are rising this morning. The U.S. Ten Year Note yield (TNX), is trading above 4.3%. A move below 4.2% would be bullish.

Bitcoin is setting up a potential test of the $70,000- $75,000 support level as its latest attempt to climb above $80,000 has failed.

My new book “Cryptocurrency 101” will get you ready for the next move in Bitcoin, and Ethereum while offering the inside scoop on stable coins, utility tokens, crypto ETFs, and the stocks of companies that are set to profit from the world of Crypto.

Disclaimer: The Smart Money Passport offers market analysis and opinion not financial advice.

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The Saturday night events in Washington and the evolution of the Iran war are giving traders a reason to become more selective as the major indexes look set to take a breather, while the market’s breadth is showing some improvement.

This morning, I’m adding a new uranium mining stock which is setting up for a breakout along with several other newly added stocks in our Momentum portfolio.

There is still demand for stocks. That’s because the macro environment – AI, construction, the issues with the power grid, resource exploration and mining, and a resurgence of the space dynamic – hasn’t changed. It’s certainly evolved because of the Iran war. Yet, under the surface it’s still about whether there’s enough liquidity in the system to push stocks higher in the sectors that should benefit from the ongoing megatrends.

The Fed meets on 4/28 and 4/29 (possibly one of Powell’s last meetings) so we don’t expect any action in the Repo market. That said, this week’s NFCI reading (released on Wednesday) will be an important clue as to the state of liquidity. So far, as I discussed in detail this weekend, the NFCI index, which documents financial conditions, is a highly accurate gauge of financial system liquidity and an excellent predictor of the stock market’s trend.

The recent stock market rally coincided with a bullish turn on the NFCI which resulted from a seasonal cash infusion of $200 billion into the financial system by the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury.

For now, the Fed has announced it continues with its RMP ($25-$40 billion/month in T-bill purchases while the U.S. Treasury continues its backdoor easing via its General Account. These two factors continue to provide liquidity to the system.

Today’s Trend View Shows Improvement in the Market’s Breadth

• NYAD is recovering this morning (see below) and is again within reach of a new high.

• The situation Iran remains volatile.

• Bitcoin continues its run at $80,000.

• Liquidity is still loose. The latest reading of the Fed’s NFCI Index fell to -0.50 from last week’s revised -0.47. New reading on NFCI tomorrow.

The Final Three Days are Here!

Two Trades in April Paid for Your Smart Money Subscription for Ten Years

Get your Smart Money Passport at a discount, now! Limited Time 20% discount Offer. Click here to access.

• SOLD - Arm Holdings Plc (ARM). Bought 4/1/26: $153. 4/17/26 intraday price: $165. Return for this trade: $1200/100 shares (7.84%).

• SOLD - Astra Zeneca (AZN). Bought 03/31/26: $194.25. SOLD 04/13/26: $201. Return for this trade: $675/100 shares (3.47%).

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Oil vs. Stocks – Oil Seems Indecisive. Stocks Grind Higher.

The price of oil continues to creep up as the situation in Iran remains volatile.

The United States Oil Fund ETF (USO) is moving higher this morning, possible heading for a test of $140.

The New York Stock Exchange Advance Decline line (NYAD) is showing signs of recovery this morning. We still need to see a series of new highs to fully confirm the uptrend.

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Chart Update

The New York Stock Exchange Advance Decline line (NYAD, see above) is showing some resilience this morning.

The S&P 500 (SPX) remains above 7000 but is ready to consolidate.

Bond yields are setting up for a big move as the Bollinger Bands are squeezing in very tightly around yields. The U.S. Ten Year Note yield (TNX), is trading above 4.3%. A move below 4.2% would be bullish.

Bitcoin keeps knocking on the door as the $70,000- $75,000 price band is holding and the $80,000 resistance area is within reach.

Curious about cryptocurrencies? I just appeared on The Stacking Benjamins Podcast, rated the Best Personal Finance podcast by Bankrate.co to discuss the ins and outs of crypto for anyone who’s interested but may be still sitting on the fence. The title of the episode is “Bitcoin, Blockchain, and the Stuff No one Actually Explains” and you can find it here. The conversation starts around the 8:50 mark.

My new book “Cryptocurrency 101” will get you ready for the next move in Bitcoin, and Ethereum while offering the inside scoop on stable coins, utility tokens, crypto ETFs, and the stocks of companies that are set to profit from the world of Crypto.

Disclaimer: The Smart Money Passport offers market analysis and opinion not financial advice.

Read more

Like it or not, the combined Federal Reserve/U.S. Treasury infusion of $200 billion into the financial system to alleviate tax season liquidity issues, is still lingering in the mix and pushing stock prices higher.

That said, the rally is becoming a bit more selective, breadth is starting to lag the indexes sentiment is getting a bit frothy, suggesting some sort of consolidation may develop in the short term.

Summer Doldrums or Summer Rally?

The month of May is the start of the summer season on Wall Street, which doesn’t fully kick in officially until Memorial Day. In fact, the month of May is often a good month for stocks, especially since Wall Street pushes the Sell in May and go Away narrative to the masses so the big players can grab bargains as the unsuspecting retail hordes sell.

Still, there is the historical conflict between the Summer Doldrums/Sell in May crowd (dull, generally, downward bias trading), while others still buy into the Summer Rally thesis (low volume trading with an upward tendency. For context, 2025 was the best May for the S&P 500 in many years.

That was because, similar to this year, we had a February-March swoon with an April recovery which launched a nearly twelve month rally. In other words, although there are no guarantees, this year looks a lot like last year.

Generally speaking, since 1990, the month of May has delivered about 1% in gains, while June is a tossup and July tends to be a decent rally month with an average gain of somewhere close to 1.5% since 1990. Meanwhile August and September are generally down months as the exodus of Wall Street traders for summer vacations increases.

That’s history. But this year is a bit different given the overhang of the Iran War, high oil prices, and the suddenly quiet but likely still percolating private credit dynamic.

In other words, anyone who trades or invests should stay plugged in, at least marginally, for the next three months.

A Direct Correlation Between Financial Conditions and the S&P 500

Rather than picking a side, we’ll focus on the primary influence on the markets, liquidity.

Last week, we asked: “what happens when $200 billion moves into the financial markets seemingly all at once?” Thus, far, we’ve witnessed the answer, a major rally in stocks and a burgeoning uptrend in Bitcoin.

This week, I wish to add visual evidence as to how what happened in early April, has affected financial conditions and what the future may hold. As the price chart for the National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) shows, the stock market’s price action is closely correlated to the status of financial conditions. We update the NFCI weekly. You can see the current reading and meaning below.

If you’re not familiar with it, here’s how it works. When the NFCI readings are negative, financial conditions are loose. However, when the negative readings start to rise, they signal financial conditions are tightening.

As the NFCI and S&P 500 charts show, the NFCI was the best predictor of the trend in stocks after the market Bottom in 2025 as it showed loosening financial conditions until January 2026 when the market began to falter. Note how SPX bottomed almost simultaneously to NFCI and rallied while NFCI showed loose financial conditions (high liquidity). As financial conditions tightened, the S&P 500 (SPX) weakened and stocks entered a correction which bottomed in April when financial conditions began to loosen again. Note that as the NFCI turned lower (signaling looser financial conditions) in April, SPX also put in a bottom.

Thus, if history holds true, and financial conditions remain loose, a case can be made for the Summer Rally scenario prevailing over the Summer Doldrums.

Bitcoin Confirms Loose Financial Conditions

As I noted last week, and as I describe in detail in Cryptocurrency 101, Bitcoin is very sensitive to liquidity, which makes it a useful indicator as well as a very tradable asset class. Currently, BTC is confirming the improvement in the status of liquidity in the financial system.

Remember, Bitcoin topped out in October of 2025, giving an early signal that liquidity troubles were starting in the system. Thus, it’s a good idea to see what BTC’s price does at the the $80-$85,000 price area, as it would be a confirmation of a continuation of the bullish liquidity situation in the financial system.

At the same time, if Bitcoin fails to conquer the $80-$85,000 area, especially if the bullish trend in the NFCI reverses, it would signal that liquidity is drying up.

Moreover, a BTC break below $70,000-$75,000, especially in conjunction with a rise in the NFCI would be full confirmation of a potential liquidity crisis.

Our Weekender (long term approach portfolio), currently has four holdings which have risen over 25% in the last few weeks. The Smart Money Passport (active trading approach) is also chockfull of winners on whom we’re approaching profit taking mode.

Important!! Time is Running Out on our Special Offer.

Two Trades in April Paid for Your Smart Money Subscription for Ten Years

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• SOLD - Arm Holdings Plc (ARM). Bought 4/1/26: $153. 4/17/26 intraday price: $165. Return for this trade: $1200/100 shares (7.84%).

• SOLD - Astra Zeneca (AZN). Bought 03/31/26: $194.25. SOLD 04/13/26: $201. Return for this trade: $675/100 shares (3.47%).

Disclaimer: The Smart Money Passport and Joe’s Weekend Portfolio offer market analysis and opinion not financial advice.

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Sentiment Summary – Neutral leaning toward exuberance.

• The CNN Greed/Fear Index (GFI) closed at 66 on 4/24/26. This is a Greed Reading

• The Coinmarketcap.com Crypto Greed/Fear was at 49 early Saturday morning – this is a neutral reading.

• The CBOE Composite Put/Call Ratio is of 0.75. The index P/C ratio closed at 0.94. Options sentiment neutral.

• The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) closed at 18.71. This is an encouraging number. A move back above 20 (the negative threshold) is possible in the short term . VIX rises when traders buy large volumes of put options. A rise in put option volume leads market makers to sell stock index futures to hedge their risk and leads markets lower. A fall in VIX is bullish signaling lower put option volume, eventually leads to call buying which is bullish as it causes market makers to buy stock index futures raising the odds of higher stock prices.

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The Tradition Continues - The Fifth Editions of “Options Trading for Dummies. #1 Best Seller in Options Trading New Releases –

Liquidity Watch – Good News! Liquidity Loosens.

The latest reading, March 27, 2026 of the Fed’s National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) (4/17/26) is a bullish -0.50, falling from -0.47 documenting loosening of financial conditions/liquidity. A declining NFCI is bullish. Negative NFCI readings signify adequate liquidity.

Bond Yields Struggle to Rise

Yields on U.S. Treasury bonds remain range bound.

The U.S. Ten Year Note yield (TNX) again closed the week below 4.3% and its 20-day moving average. A break below the 200-day moving average would be bullish. A move above 4.5% would likely take TNX back toward the May 2025 high near 4.6%.

SPX, and NDX Set New Highs - NYAD Lags.

The New York Stock Exchange Advance Decline line (NYAD) is starting to lag the new highs on NDX and SPX. The uptrend remains confirmed – for now. But a continued lagging on NYAD will raise some concerns.

The Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) continues its strong trading pattern fueled by the semiconductor sector. 26,000 is now short term support.

The S&P 500 (SPX, above) made new highs and remains above 7000, which is becoming important psychological support.

I just appeared on The Stacking Benjamins Podcast, rated the Best Personal Finance podcast by Bankrate.co to discuss the ins and outs of crypto for anyone who’s interested but may be still sitting on the fence. The title of the episode is “Bitcoin, Blockchain, and the Stuff No one Actually Explains” and you can find it here. The conversation starts around the 8:50 mark.

The Iran war headlines are fast and furious this morning, which raises the potential for some sort of decisive event occurring over the weekend.

The tug of war between liquidity and events continues, with this week’s NFCI index displaying a loosening in financial conditions suggesting the liquidity environment is improving.

For now, the Fed has announced it continues with its RMP ($25-$40 billion/month in T-bill purchases while the U.S. Treasury continues its backdoor easing via its General Account. These two factors continue to provide liquidity to the system.

Still the New York Stock Exchange Advance Decline line (see below) is showing signs of indecision as traders pull back their horns based on the Iran war headlines ahead of the weekend.

Today’s Trend View Shows an Expectant Market

The market is in wait and see mode with SPX trading above 7000 and NDX is trading above 26,000.

• NYAD is barely moving but retains its upward trend.

• The situation in the Strait of Hormuz is increasingly volatile with events possibly reaching a make or break point this weekend.

• Bitcoin continues its run at $80,000 but also seems tentative.

• Liquidity is loosening. The latest reading of the Fed’s NFCI Index fell to -0.50 from last week’s revised -0.47. New reading on NFCI tomorrow.

Important!! Time is Running Out on our Special Offer.

Two Trades in April Paid for Your Smart Money Subscription for Ten Years

Get your Smart Money Passport at a discount, now! Limited Time 20% discount Offer. Click here to access.

• SOLD - Arm Holdings Plc (ARM). Bought 4/1/26: $153. 4/17/26 intraday price: $165. Return for this trade: $1200/100 shares (7.84%).

• SOLD - Astra Zeneca (AZN). Bought 03/31/26: $194.25. SOLD 04/13/26: $201. Return for this trade: $675/100 shares (3.47%).

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Oil vs. Stocks – Oil Seems Indecisive. Stocks Grind Higher.

The price of oil continues to respond to headlines but is making little headway.

The United States Oil Fund ETF (USO) remains above $130 despite showing some weakness this morning. A break below the 20-day moving average would set up an interesting decision point for traders.

NYAD

The New York Stock Exchange Advance Decline line (NYAD) is flat but remains above its 20-day moving average. We still need more robust action in NYAD soon.

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Chart Update

The New York Stock Exchange Advance Decline line (NYAD, see above) is holding steady.

The S&P 500 (SPX) remains above 7000.

Bond yields are a bit unsettled this morning. The U.S. Ten Year Note yield (TNX), is volatile crisscrossing above and below 4.3%. A move below 4.2% would be bullish. The Bollinger Band squeeze is getting tighter by the day which means we could see a big move develop.

Bitcoin remains steady trading above the $70,000- $75,000 price band as it continues to probe the $80,000 resistance area. For now, the rally confirms that the liquidity infusion from the Fed and the U.S. Treasury are still a positive influence on the markets. Any sustained weakness in Bitcoin could be forecasting yet another liquidity squeeze. A failure at $70,000 is likely to kill this breakout attempt.

I just appeared on The Stacking Benjamins Podcast, rated the Best Personal Finance podcast by Bankrate.co to discuss the ins and outs of crypto for anyone who’s interested but may be still sitting on the fence. The title of the episode is “Bitcoin, Blockchain, and the Stuff No one Actually Explains” and you can find it here. The conversation starts around the 8:50 mark.

My new book “Cryptocurrency 101” will get you ready for the next move in Bitcoin, and Ethereum while offering the inside scoop on stable coins, utility tokens, crypto ETFs, and the stocks of companies that are set to profit from the world of Crypto.

Disclaimer: The Smart Money Passport offers market analysis and opinion not financial advice.

Read more

It’s a minute by minute market, which requires patience, vigilance, and a good sense of humor.

The recent rally is consolidating as money is adjusting its sites on sectors which have extended potential. Liquidity remains the key driver of the trend. The responses to news in the oil market, while still present, are somewhat muted.

This morning, I’m updating the recommendations on our entire portfolio which continues to fire on all cylinders. Our midstream natgas holding is setting up for a breakout, while our consumer stock is breaking out. Meanwhile our two semiconductor holdings continue to pad their already over 20% gains.

Certainly, liquidity remains the number one factor driving trading behavior. That means that, now more than ever, trading day to day is the most viable strategy, while we focus on the three important questions regarding liquidity:

1) How much fuel is left in the tank? This week’s NFCI index says there’s more than the market expected.

2) How long before it’s exhausted? This is the big one. If the Fed continues with its RMP ($25-$40 billion/month in T-bill purchases and the Treasury continues its backdoor easing via its General Account, the odds of a continuation of the upward trend in stocks are favorable.

3) Is there more fuel coming in the way of liquidity infusions into the financial system? If there’s more, stocks will continue to work higher.

Today’s Trend View

Our market trend confirmation points remain on the positive side. Of the two, the market’s breadth is starting to lag.

• SPX is trading above 7000 and NDX is trading above 26,000.

• NYAD has made a new high recently but has yet to deliver several convincing follow up new highs.

• The situation in the Strait of Hormuz is increasingly volatile

• Bitcoin continues its run at $80,000

• Liquidity is loosening. The latest reading of the Fed’s NFCI Index fell to -0.47 from last week’s revised -0.47. New reading on NFCI tomorrow.

Important!! Time is Running Out on our Special Offer.

Two Trades in April Paid for Your Smart Money Subscription for Ten Years

Come on In! Get your Smart Money Passport at a discount, now! Limited Time 20% discount Offer. Click here to access.

• SOLD - Arm Holdings Plc (ARM). Bought 4/1/26: $153. 4/17/26 intraday price: $165. Return for this trade: $1200/100 shares (7.84%).

• SOLD - Astra Zeneca (AZN). Bought 03/31/26: $194.25. SOLD 04/13/26: $201. Return for this trade: $675/100 shares (3.47%).

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Oil vs. Stocks – Jumpy Oil and Tired Stocks.

The price of oil is remarkably sedate this morning even as the situation in the Strait of Hormuz escalates .

The United States Oil Fund ETF (USO) is testing a key price range with $130 as the focal point. A move above the $120-$130 trading range will likely define the next trend.

The New York Stock Exchange Advance Decline line (NYAD) up, but not very convincingly this morning, and has not made any new, convincing new highs. Again, I note that this action in NYAD is acceptable for now, but if this rally is going to persist, we’ll need more robust action in NYAD soon.

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Chart Update – NYAD Softens. Bitcoin is Still Below $80,000.

The New York Stock Exchange Advance Decline line (NYAD, see above) is struggling this morning, still not delivering a knockout punch to the bears.

The S&P 500 (SPX) remains above 7000. But it needs a rest.

Bond yields are remarkably steady. The U.S. Ten Year Note yield (TNX), is trading below 4.3%. A move below 4.2% would be bullish. We’re starting to see a recurrence of the Bollinger Band squeeze which means we could see a big move develop.

Bitcoin continues to trade constructively, remaining above the $70,000- $75,000 price band as it continues to probe $80,000. For now, the rally confirms that the liquidity infusion from the Fed and the U.S. Treasury are still a positive influence on the markets. Any sustained weakness in Bitcoin could be forecasting yet another liquidity squeeze. A failure at $70,000 is likely to kill this breakout attempt.

I just appeared on The Stacking Benjamins Podcast, rated the Best Personal Finance podcast by Bankrate.co to discuss the ins and outs of crypto for anyone who’s interested but may be still sitting on the fence. The title of the episode is “Bitcoin, Blockchain, and the Stuff No one Actually Explains” and you can find it here. The conversation starts around the 8:50 mark.

My new book “Cryptocurrency 101” will get you ready for the next move in Bitcoin, and Ethereum while offering the inside scoop on stable coins, utility tokens, crypto ETFs, and the stocks of companies that are set to profit from the world of Crypto.

Disclaimer: The Smart Money Passport offers market analysis and opinion not financial advice.

Read more

Hello everyone. Just a quick note.

I just appeared on The Stacking Benjamins Podcast to discuss the ins and outs of crypto for anyone who’s interested but may be still sitting on the fence.

The Stacking Benjamins Podcast was named the Best Personal Finance podcast by Bankrate.com in 2023 and has a light and friendly tone. Hosts Joe Saul-Sehy and OG aim to make financial literacy fun for all as they sit around the card table in Joe’s Mom’s half-finished basement and talk with experts about personal finance, saving, investing, and important money trends. As Fast Company once wrote, the Stacking Benjamins podcast “strikes a great balance of fun and functional.”

The title of the episode is “Bitcoin, Blockchain, and the Stuff No one Actually Explains” and you can find it here. The conversation starts around the 8:50 mark.

I had a great time and highly recommend a listen as it’s a great introduction cryptocurrencies and my new book - “Crypto Trading 101.”

You can now order my new book “Cryptocurrency 101” and be fully prepared for the next move in Bitcoin, and Ethereum while getting the scoop on stable coins, utility tokens and the rest of the inside world of Crypto.

As always, thank you for your support. You’re the music, I’m just the band.

Disclaimer: The Smart Money Passport offers market analysis and opinion not financial advice.

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Stocks are likely to grind higher as liquidity is still in expansion mode which means the momentum run in stocks and crypto still has some fuel left in the tank. The lingering questions are:

1) How much fuel is left in the tank?

2) How long before it’s exhausted? and

3) Is there more fuel coming in the way of liquidity infusions into the financial system?

Moreover, the situation in Iran is nowhere near over, which means that any new developments have the potential to shake the market and cause lots of volatility.

Financial Conditions Ease. Liquidity is Growing for Now.

Yesterday, I noted: “The big question for momentum investors is how long the liquidity in the system will hold up and what happens if it runs our early.”

This morning’s NFCI Index came in at a bullish – 0.50 signaling financial conditions are back on easing mode, a sign that the combined Fed and U.S. Treasury tax season related liquidity boost of some $200 billion is still active. Meanwhile, the Fed’s RMP infusion of somewhere between $25-$40 billion per month is still active.

So, as I noted yesterday, “The short covering rally has run its course. So the market is now running on liquidity.”

That doesn’t mean that the situation in Iran won’t affect the daily trade. But it’s a better scenario than the ongoing war uncertainty combined with low liquidity.

Today’s Market Action

Our two confirmation points remain on the positive side.

• SPX is trading above 7000 and NDX is trading above 26,000.

• NYAD has made a new high recently but has yet to deliver several convincing follow up new highs.

Important!! Two Trades in April Paid for Your Smart Money Subscription for Ten Years

Come on In! Get your Smart Money Passport at a discount, now! Limited Time 20% discount Offer. Click here to access.

• SOLD - Arm Holdings Plc (ARM). Bought 4/1/26: $153. 4/17/26 intraday price: $165. Return for this trade: $1200/100 shares (7.84%).

• SOLD - Astra Zeneca (AZN). Bought 03/31/26: $194.25. SOLD 04/13/26: $201. Return for this trade: $675/100 shares (3.47%).

Points to Consider:

• The cease fire situation the Hormuz blockade is fluctuating with ships being captured by both sides.

• Bitcoin is attempting a run at $80,000

• The market’s breadth is making marginal new highs

• Liquidity is loosening. The latest reading of the Fed’s NFCI Index fell to -0.47 from last week’s revised -0.47. New reading on NFCI tomorrow.

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Oil vs. Stocks – Oil Seems Indecisive. Stocks Grind Higher.

The price of oil is remarkably sedate this morning even as the situation in the Strait of Hormuz escalates .

The United States Oil Fund ETF (USO) is straddling its 20-day moving average. A move above the $120-$130 trading range will likely define the next trend.

The New York Stock Exchange Advance Decline line (NYAD) is rising this morning, but as of this post’s writing has not made a new high for the day. Again, I note that this action in NYAD is acceptable for now, but if this rally is going to persist, we’ll need more robust action in NYAD.

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Chart Update – Bitcoin Sets Up Potential Breakout

The New York Stock Exchange Advance Decline line (NYAD, see above) is still not delivering a knockout punch to the bears.

The S&P 500 (SPX) remains above 7000. This is encouraging.

Bond yields are steady. The U.S. Ten Year Note yield (TNX), is trading below 4.3%. A move below 4.2% would be bullish. We’re starting to see a recurrence of the Bollinger Band squeeze which means we could see a big move develop.

Bitcoin is well above the $70,000- $75,000 and is headed for a test of $80,000. This rally confirms that the recent liquidity infusion from the Fed and the U.S. Treasury is still a positive influence on the markets.. A sustained move above $75,000 is almost certainly going to create a major short squeeze and a big price move toward the $80 -$85,000 price area. A failure at $70,000 is likely to kill this breakout attempt.

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The big question for momentum investors is whether there’s still enough liquidity in the system to keep the momentum run in stocks and crypto going.

Markets are rising this morning in response to the slight improvement in the Iran war headlines. The problem is that there are no guarantees that anything good will happen during the talks, so things could change at the drop of a hat.

On the other hand, the recent liquidity boost from the U.S. Treasury (albeit a seasonal maneuver until proven otherwise) and the Fed’s RMP infusion of somewhere between $25-$40 billion per month has put a floor under stocks, which were set up to rally on a short covering, over the last few weeks.

The short covering rally, however, has run its course. So the market is now running on liquidity - with its status unknown. We’ll get a clue tomorrow when the latest NFCI reading is released.

That means that any gains that develop from here on are likely the result of positive momentum gathering steam. Interestingly, the most sensitive liquidity/momentum bellwether Bitcoin is holding steady but not rallying in a big way this morning – a sign that there’s caution inside the Mo-Mo community.

Confirmation Holds for Now

The markets have achieved an uneasy confirmation based on two points:

• SPX is trading above 7000 while NDX has held above 26,000.

• NYAD has made a new high, but has yet to deliver several convincing follow up new highs within the next few days after the first new high. I then added: “If we don’t see these developments within the next few days, the odds of the rally failing will start to rise.”

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Outside the markets today:

• The cease fire situation the Hormuz blockade is about to move to a different level

• Bitcoin is holding above $75,000

• The market’s breadth is making marginal new highs

• Liquidity is loosening. The latest reading of the Fed’s NFCI Index fell to -0.47 from last week’s revised -0.47. New reading on NFCI tomorrow.

Oil vs. Stocks – Oil Creeps Up. Stocks Advance.

The price of oil is sneaking higher this morning as the situation in Iran unfolds . Anything is possible here.

The United States Oil Fund ETF (USO) remains below its 20-day moving average. $125 remains important resistance.

The New York Stock Exchange Advance Decline line (NYAD) has been making marginal new highs, which is acceptable for now. But, if this rally is going to persist, we’ll need more robust action in NYAD.

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Chart Update – Holding Steady. Waiting for the Next Move in Iran.

The New York Stock Exchange Advance Decline line (NYAD, see above) is making marginal new highs.

The S&P 500 (SPX) is making a marginal new high this morning and remains above 7000. This is encouraging.

Bond yields are holding surprisingly steady. The U.S. Ten Year Note yield (TNX), is trading below 4.3%. A move below 4.2% would be bullish.

Bitcoin remains above the $70,000- $75,000 compression area and has traded as high as $78,000 in the last couple of days. This, until proven otherwise suggests that the recent liquidity infusion from the Fed and the U.S. Treasury have not fully run their course. A sustained move above $75,000 is almost certainly going to create a major short squeeze and a big price move toward the $80 -$85,000 price area. A failure at $70,000 is likely to kill this breakout attempt.

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Editor’s note: Apologies if you’ve received this post once already this morning. Our Substack publishing platform had a glitch and some subscribers may not have received it.

It’s a battle between liquidity, its close ally momentum, and the news cycle as investors try to sort through the rapidly evolving and often contradictory Iran war news and the closer to home reality of earnings and major macro developments, especially earnings, the status of the AI/electric grid, energy supplies and the actions of the Federal Reserve and the U.S. treasury.

So far, and of course it’s early in the day, liquidity may be gaining ground on the news cycle. Bitcoin has held above $75,000 while the S&P 500 (SPX) remains above $7000 and the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) is holding above $26,000 while bond yields are stable and the price of oil has bounced modestly.

This weekend, I focused on the $200 billion worth of liquidity infused into the financial system by the Federal Reserve (via its ongoing and possibly shifting Reserve Management Program and actions in the Repo system) and the U.S. Treasury’s actions via its General Account).

The take home message was that the markets would eventually test whether that liquidity infusion (perhaps temporary and seasonal) would be enough to keep the markets from unraveling. That relationship is being tested this morning as the rapidly shifting situation in Iran has increased market volatility.

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Outside the markets today:

• The cease fire situation and the Hormuz blockade continues to evolve

• Bitcoin is consolidating near $75,000

• The market’s breadth is showing excellent relative strength.

• Liquidity is loosening. The latest reading of the Fed’s NFCI Index fell to -0.47 from last week’s revise

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Oil vs. Stocks – Oil Bounces. Stocks Hold Up.

The price of oil is predictably bouncing this morning. Yet, there is less conviction in the rise and prices seem to be stalling as the day wears on. Of course, it’s all about the news so things could change rapidly.

The United States Oil Fund ETF (USO) remains below its 20-day moving average. $125 is important resistance.

The New York Stock Exchange Advance Decline line (NYAD) is making a very marginal new high in the early going. In the face of today’s headlines, this is quite the feat. Still for a full bullish confirmation we need to see a new closing high.

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Chart Update – Markets Hold Up for Now.

The New York Stock Exchange Advance Decline line (NYAD, see above) is holding up quite impressively this morning. Let’s see if it lasts until the close.

The S&P 500 (SPX) barely moving this morning but remains above 7000. This is encouraging.

Bond yields are holding steady. The U.S. Ten Year Note yield (TNX), is trading below 4.3%. A move below 4.2% would be bullish.

Bitcoin is holding up, remaining above the $70,000- $75,000 compression area. This is quite remarkable given the headlines. A sustained move above $75,000 is almost certainly going to create a major short squeeze and a big price move toward the $80 -$85,000 price area. A failure at $70,000 is likely to kill this breakout attempt.

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